Economics

The relationship between the EU and China continues to be complex and multi-dimensional. On one hand, China is the EU's second largest trading partner after the U.S and EU-China trade volume reached over $1 trillion in 2021. On the other hand, the EU has continuously criticized China over issues such human rights concerns, alongside challenges such as China's lack of market access for EU companies, and challenges to the international rules-based system.

In 2023, these diverging economic interests are shaping the dynamics of EU-China Relations. We should expect the economic partnership to remain key in 2023, but with a more cautious and pragmatic approach from the EU. China's growing global assertiveness and strategic competition with the U.S. is also influencing the EU’s stance towards Beijing.

The EU is also working to diversify supply chains and reduce its dependence on China for certain imports through its ‘strategic autonomy' agenda. The COVID-19 Pandemic has arguably highlighted risks in being overly reliant on China for goods such as medical equipment. The EU will likely aim to reduce these vulnerabilities while maintaining economic cooperation with China where interests align.

NATO’s new Strategic Concept will most likely retain support for the Open Door Policy and the principle that states have the right to pursue independent foreign policy. The Strategic Concept, however, is being deliberated amid Russia's aggressive attempts to secure legal guarantees from NATO allies and the US; if achieved, this will effectively stop NATO’s enlargement too, and the military cooperation with, the former Soviet republics.22 In its December 16 statement, the North Atlantic Council noted that it is ‘aware of Russia’s recent European security proposals’, but conditioned dialogue on reciprocity, on the fundamental documents that govern European security and on the inclusion of NATO’s European partners into the consultation process.

The evolution of NATO-Georgian relations can be grouped into four periods: 1) post-independence to Rose Revolution; 2) Rose Revolution to the 2008 Russian-Georgian war; 3) Russian-Georgian war to the annexation of Crimea and 4) Post-annexation of Crimea.

NATO-Russian relations have been ever contentious due to Russia’s opposition to NATO’s eastward enlargement. The 1997 NATO-Russian Founding Act saw relative improvement in relations, only to deteriorate as Vladimir Putin sought to increase Russia’s role in the world. Russia’s withdrawal from The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, its aggression against Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 registered new lows in relations. Despite this, NATO has pursued a dual-track approach towards Russia, ensuring a balance of forces while keeping the political dialogue open to ensure long-term stability in Europe.